Friday, May 17, 2019

This year's host city: Pittsburgh

Ten years ago, the TUFF world experienced a trip to the Twilight Zone, as the Detroit Vipers won eight straight games after a 4-5 start to win TUFF Bowl IX.  But last year, Stranger Things happened.  The playing field got turned upside down as Green Bay went from 6-0 to a four-game losing streak and a Week 14 playoff exit; Houston, owners of the league’s best regular season record at 11-3, succumbed to a mix of ill-timed injuries and off-field problems; New Orleans, who had the NFC’s best regular season record at 10-4, suddenly looked like a team playing for the #1 pick in Week 15; and finally, the Vipers—remember them?—won their second TUFF Bowl after back-to-back seasons of eleven losses and stumbling to a 3-5 start.

Less than five months later, here we are.  Pittsburgh has the #1 pick for the second year running—will the BIG PAPAS become the new monsters of the AFC?  New Orleans has no picks after trading away their whole draft—how will they survive the upcoming season?  And how will the defending champion Vipers—that's a phrase football fans never thought they'd hear again—handle the challenge of addressing key needs at the bottom of every round?  These questions will be answered over the course of the next seven months.  In the meantime, break out the walkie-talkies, and let your friends know, the TUFF Draft Wrapup as you know it is back!

Throughout this Wrapup, you will see a few of the icons below. Here's what they mean:

Significant improvements on a TUFF team's starting lineup, could be cornerstone players for that team, and/or are great values for where they were taken.
High risk/high reward picks (e.g. players picked relatively high because of his upside, even in spite of character, medical and/or job situation concerns).
Either a reach and/or there was at least one player the team should have taken.
"Curveball" picks that may well be good ones, but leave me asking why a team didn't take a player I expected them to take or address another need on the roster (example from 2012: Carolina passing up QB Nick Foles--a handcuff pick--in favor of WR Danny Coale in Round 3).

1.01 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - RB Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh got this pick, along with Denver’s #1 pick last year (which was used to select QB Sam Darnold), in the 2017 trade that sent WR Antonio Brown to the Devils.  Even though they had expressed an interest in moving down, really, the only option was to stay put and take Jacobs.  With QB Andrew Luck back to 100%, Saquon Barkley at RB, and Odell Beckham Jr. and Corey Davis at WR, adding Jacobs to their backfield is a big step towards making Pitt the AFC’s next superpower.
  NFL.com puts prospects into several different buckets, from “once-in-a-lifetime player” to “likely needs time in developmental league”.  This year, the only running back in this year’s class to get the “should be instant starter” grade was Jacobs.  All other RBs were "chance to be a starter" or lower.  Even though Jacobs played behind Damien Harris at Alabama, the Scouting Combine revealed that he has the skill set to be an every-down back.

1.02 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - QB Kyler Murray

Indy finished 2018 with six straight losses.  Since they have a solid RB duo in Melvin Gordon and Derrick Henry, they theoretically could have moved down with a team that needed a back and still addressed either of their two biggest needs (QB, WR).  But after trading Drew Brees to New Orleans last fall, Indy really needed help at QB, and while there is no clear-cut best WR in this year’s class, Murray’s dual-threat capability gives him tremendous upside.  Derek Carr (or as YouTuber UrinatingTree calls him, "the rotting corpse of Derek Carr") is the starter now, but Case Keenum (acquired as part the Brees trade) is a shaky backup.  Is Murray a slightly shorter version of Russell Wilson, or just a better, taller version of Doug Flutie?

1.03 Cleveland Steamers - RB David Montgomery

The Steamers took Montgomery to handcuff to Tarik Cohen, solidifying their backfield.  Besides, Ronald Jones II (their first-round pick last year) has been a disappointment so far, and Marshawn Lynch has retired once again (and probably for good this time).  Pro: Did what he did despite not having a very good O-line in front of him.  Con: May not have breakaway speed.

1.04 Arizona Outlaws - RB Miles Sanders

Prior to the Combine, not much thought given to him because he played the bulk of his career behind Saquon Barkley, but then he posted a 4.49 40 and a 6.89 three-cone drill.  The Arizona Outlaws were in the thick of the NFC playoff race after nine weeks, but then they finished with four straight losses. This, despite Alvin Kamara at RB, a very good WR group headed by DeAndre Hopkins, and the emergence of Baker Mayfield at QB.  Lady Luck was mean to the Outlaws, as they suffered four losses by a margin of fewer than five points, including one by less than a point vs. Houston.  But then again, they won a tie-breaker with Dallas, and they apparently decided to use it to snag a player Dallas would have loved to have had (Dallas has Jordan Howard to handcuff Sanders to).

1.05 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - QB Dwayne Haskins

The Golden Tornadoes fell to 5-9 due to inconsistent QB play (especially from Jameis Winston), RB Jordan Howard’s downfall in Chicago, and TE Jimmy Graham having arguably his worst season.  They would have loved to have gotten Sanders to ensure they would have a #2 RB to join Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, but they missed out by a tie-breaker with Arizona, so they address the QB position.  Haskins was the consensus #1 QB in this year’s draft until new Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury let the cat out of the bag about his interest in Kyler Murray.

1.06 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - WR N’Keal Harry

First Jacobs, now this.  Pros: Size, ball skills, body control. Cons: Appeared heavy-footed at the Combine (according to NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks).  The impression I'm getting is that Harry would make a fine red zone target--provided New England can continue getting there.  Bottom line, if Harry can reverse the Patriots' recent history where drafting wide receivers is concerned, watch out.