Friday, May 17, 2019

This year's host city: Pittsburgh

Ten years ago, the TUFF world experienced a trip to the Twilight Zone, as the Detroit Vipers won eight straight games after a 4-5 start to win TUFF Bowl IX.  But last year, Stranger Things happened.  The playing field got turned upside down as Green Bay went from 6-0 to a four-game losing streak and a Week 14 playoff exit; Houston, owners of the league’s best regular season record at 11-3, succumbed to a mix of ill-timed injuries and off-field problems; New Orleans, who had the NFC’s best regular season record at 10-4, suddenly looked like a team playing for the #1 pick in Week 15; and finally, the Vipers—remember them?—won their second TUFF Bowl after back-to-back seasons of eleven losses and stumbling to a 3-5 start.

Less than five months later, here we are.  Pittsburgh has the #1 pick for the second year running—will the BIG PAPAS become the new monsters of the AFC?  New Orleans has no picks after trading away their whole draft—how will they survive the upcoming season?  And how will the defending champion Vipers—that's a phrase football fans never thought they'd hear again—handle the challenge of addressing key needs at the bottom of every round?  These questions will be answered over the course of the next seven months.  In the meantime, break out the walkie-talkies, and let your friends know, the TUFF Draft Wrapup as you know it is back!

Throughout this Wrapup, you will see a few of the icons below. Here's what they mean:

Significant improvements on a TUFF team's starting lineup, could be cornerstone players for that team, and/or are great values for where they were taken.
High risk/high reward picks (e.g. players picked relatively high because of his upside, even in spite of character, medical and/or job situation concerns).
Either a reach and/or there was at least one player the team should have taken.
"Curveball" picks that may well be good ones, but leave me asking why a team didn't take a player I expected them to take or address another need on the roster (example from 2012: Carolina passing up QB Nick Foles--a handcuff pick--in favor of WR Danny Coale in Round 3).

1.01 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - RB Josh Jacobs

Pittsburgh got this pick, along with Denver’s #1 pick last year (which was used to select QB Sam Darnold), in the 2017 trade that sent WR Antonio Brown to the Devils.  Even though they had expressed an interest in moving down, really, the only option was to stay put and take Jacobs.  With QB Andrew Luck back to 100%, Saquon Barkley at RB, and Odell Beckham Jr. and Corey Davis at WR, adding Jacobs to their backfield is a big step towards making Pitt the AFC’s next superpower.
  NFL.com puts prospects into several different buckets, from “once-in-a-lifetime player” to “likely needs time in developmental league”.  This year, the only running back in this year’s class to get the “should be instant starter” grade was Jacobs.  All other RBs were "chance to be a starter" or lower.  Even though Jacobs played behind Damien Harris at Alabama, the Scouting Combine revealed that he has the skill set to be an every-down back.

1.02 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - QB Kyler Murray

Indy finished 2018 with six straight losses.  Since they have a solid RB duo in Melvin Gordon and Derrick Henry, they theoretically could have moved down with a team that needed a back and still addressed either of their two biggest needs (QB, WR).  But after trading Drew Brees to New Orleans last fall, Indy really needed help at QB, and while there is no clear-cut best WR in this year’s class, Murray’s dual-threat capability gives him tremendous upside.  Derek Carr (or as YouTuber UrinatingTree calls him, "the rotting corpse of Derek Carr") is the starter now, but Case Keenum (acquired as part the Brees trade) is a shaky backup.  Is Murray a slightly shorter version of Russell Wilson, or just a better, taller version of Doug Flutie?

1.03 Cleveland Steamers - RB David Montgomery

The Steamers took Montgomery to handcuff to Tarik Cohen, solidifying their backfield.  Besides, Ronald Jones II (their first-round pick last year) has been a disappointment so far, and Marshawn Lynch has retired once again (and probably for good this time).  Pro: Did what he did despite not having a very good O-line in front of him.  Con: May not have breakaway speed.

1.04 Arizona Outlaws - RB Miles Sanders

Prior to the Combine, not much thought given to him because he played the bulk of his career behind Saquon Barkley, but then he posted a 4.49 40 and a 6.89 three-cone drill.  The Arizona Outlaws were in the thick of the NFC playoff race after nine weeks, but then they finished with four straight losses. This, despite Alvin Kamara at RB, a very good WR group headed by DeAndre Hopkins, and the emergence of Baker Mayfield at QB.  Lady Luck was mean to the Outlaws, as they suffered four losses by a margin of fewer than five points, including one by less than a point vs. Houston.  But then again, they won a tie-breaker with Dallas, and they apparently decided to use it to snag a player Dallas would have loved to have had (Dallas has Jordan Howard to handcuff Sanders to).

1.05 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - QB Dwayne Haskins

The Golden Tornadoes fell to 5-9 due to inconsistent QB play (especially from Jameis Winston), RB Jordan Howard’s downfall in Chicago, and TE Jimmy Graham having arguably his worst season.  They would have loved to have gotten Sanders to ensure they would have a #2 RB to join Ezekiel Elliott in the backfield, but they missed out by a tie-breaker with Arizona, so they address the QB position.  Haskins was the consensus #1 QB in this year’s draft until new Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury let the cat out of the bag about his interest in Kyler Murray.

1.06 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - WR N’Keal Harry

First Jacobs, now this.  Pros: Size, ball skills, body control. Cons: Appeared heavy-footed at the Combine (according to NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks).  The impression I'm getting is that Harry would make a fine red zone target--provided New England can continue getting there.  Bottom line, if Harry can reverse the Patriots' recent history where drafting wide receivers is concerned, watch out.

1.07 Carolina Convicts - WR DK Metcalf

The Cons were so close to their first playoff berth since 2015.  Their Week 12 loss against Detroit shows how close—if only Graham Gano had made that 52-yard FG try at the end of the game, they would been the wild card team, and Detroit would have been in the TUFF S*** Bowl tournament instead.  If Haskins hadn’t been taken at 1.05, he would have made perfect sense here—they need a new backup for Jared Goff because Blake Bortles (2014 1st-round pick) hasn’t worked out, and Alex Smith’s career is in jeopardy.  That said, I applaud the Metcalf pick because that is one mad blend of size, speed and talent.  At 6-3 and 228 pounds, Metcalf ripped off a 4.33 40-yard dash, a 40.5-inch vertical leap and an 11-foot-2 broad jump.  But durability is a big concern—he only played 21 games (missed 2016 due to a broken foot and part of 2018 with a neck injury).  It can be argued that until he can improve his lateral quickness and run the whole route tree, he should be considered a work in progress.  Note: Veteran WR Doug Baldwin failed his physical and is reportedly considering retirement.

1.08 Minnesota Fighting Saints - WR A.J. Brown

Last season, the Fighting Saints won 4 of their last 5 games, thanks to the sudden emergence of Patrick Mahomes II at quarterback.  Since they finished just one game out of the playoffs, one only wonders how they might have done if their first-round pick (Derrius Guice) hadn’t torn his ACL—the second time in as many years that Minnesota’s first-round pick tore an ACL.  They really need Guice and Dalvin Cook to come through if they want to contend for TUFF Bowl XX.  Since they needed help at WR anyway, they went with AJ Brown.  Demonstrated a good size/speed blend (although not quite as good as Metcalf).  Impression con: Corey Davis is already the #1 receiver on a passing offense that hasn’t done much.  Impression pro: Maybe the reason why the passing offense hasn’t done much in the last few years is that Mariota hasn’t had many targets to throw to.

1.09 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - WR Deebo Samuel

Rob Gronkowski’s retirement left a big hole at TE, but Paul Granholm apparently saw how deep this year’s Draft is at tight end, and passed on TJ Hockenson.  Instead, the Meat Goats went WR with Samuel, who is built like a running back at 5’11”, 214, and excels at getting yards after the catch.  Note: The San Francisco 49ers, who drafted Samuel out of South Carolina, drafted another wide receiver, Jalen Hurd.  However, in Hurd's case, it's not clear yet whether he'll be used as a wideout or if he'll also be used as an H-back or even a tight end.

1.10 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB Darrell Henderson

Tennessee barely missed the playoffs last year.  A big reason was the running backs--Jerick McKinnon tore his ACL, and Samaje Perine failed to step up.  Like the Fighting Saints, though, they went 4-1 over Weeks 9 through 13, even despite another ACL tear (WR Cooper Kupp, who turned out to be a big steal in the 2017 Draft).  To that end, they took Henderson, who (according to Rotoworld) was considered by several analysts to be top RB in this year’s class.  The Rams traded up to draft him in Round 3, and their GM, Les Snead, compared him to Alvin Kamara.  Factor in Todd Gurley’s arthritic left knee (he tore the ACL in that same knee in 2014), and Henderson could play a lot more.  For what it’s worth, the Rams reportedly restricted the number of carries Gurley had in the NFC Championship game and the Super Bowl.  Note: QB Josh Rosen had a shaky rookie season last year, but the Taz Devils were able to handcuff Rosen by shipping Blaine Gabbert to Dallas for Ryan Fitzpatrick, solidifying their QB depth for this season.

1.11 Cleveland Steamers - TE T.J. Hockenson

A couple years ago, a duo of Tyler Eifert and Delanie Walker would have looked solid.  Given the injuries they had last year, they’re about as solid as balsa wood now.  Hockenson won the 2018 Mackey Award (college football’s most outstanding TE) as a redshirt sophomore.

1.12 Cleveland Steamers - WR Parris Campbell

Cleveland took Campbell to get better as well as deeper at wide receiver.  At the moment, they have Demaryius Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Courtland Sutton as the starters, but Thomas is on the downside of his career.  Now age 31, Thomas is coming off the worst season of his career, and his stats have been trending backwards for a few years now.  Campbell stood out at the Combine with a 4.31 40-yard dash, and had already demonstrated big-play abilities (e.g. that 78-yard TD run vs. Michigan).  But how good will he be with catching long passes?  Raymond Summerlin of Rotoworld notes that just 21 of his 111 targets traveled more than 10 yards in the air (according to Pro Football Focus).

1.13 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - WR Mecole Hardman

Even after getting D.J. Moore in Round 1 a year ago, Indy's starting WRs were among the least productive in TUFF last season, and as noted in previous Wrapups, Larry Fitzgerald and DeSean Jackson aren’t getting any younger.  Indy got this pick, plus Round 3 and 4 picks this year and next year’s #1, from New Orleans in last season’s Drew Brees trade.  Hardman has 4.33 speed, but when the Kansas City Chiefs took him in Round 2--DK Metcalf was still on the board at that point--I wondered why.  The answer probably lies in what took place just three days before, when TMZ leaked a particularly chilling audio recording of Tyreek Hill and his fiance. Does KC see a plug-and-play replacement in Hardman?

1.14 Houston Tethered Swimmers - RB Darwin Thompson

The Tethered Swimmers had one of the worst runs of late-season bad luck in recent memory (Kareem Hunt cut, Cam Newton hurt, Kerryon Johnson hurt).  And as if that wasn’t bad enough, there’s Tyreek Hill’s domestic abuse issues—issues that date back to his college days.  And now for the first eye-popper pick of this draft—Thompson, a running back who went in Round 6 of April’s NFL Draft.  This is clearly a swing for the fences.  A lot of fantasy rookie mock drafts had Thompson going higher than in pre-NFL Draft mocks, due to landing in Kansas City’s Hunt-free backfield, but not this high!  In fairness, Jeff Rathburn may not have expected Mecole Hardman to get picked right before their pick, but anyway, he passed on a few higher-graded wide receivers to get Thompson.

1.15 Baltimore Brown Clowns - RB Damien Harris

Here we are at the 15th pick, and this is the eighth to be taken by an AFC East team.  The Brown Clowns got to their first TUFF Bowl with the help of free agent acquisition Adrian Peterson, but with Peterson in the twilight of his career, and Lamar Miller less than a year away from turning 30, they decided to address the future at running back (as well as hedge their bets on Royce Freeman, their first-round pick last year, as best as they can).  The New England Patriots drafted him in Round 3 to add needed depth to their backfield.

1.16 Detroit Vipers - WR Marquise “Hollywood” Brown

Wide receiver has been a position of need for the defending TUFF Bowl Champion Vipers for almost all of this decade.  No Vipers WR reached 800 receiving yards last season, and their depth at the position was so poor, they had to pick three receivers out of Indianapolis’ garbage (Dede Westbrook in 2017, and Willie Snead and Rashard Higgins last year).  Enter Marquise Brown.  He is known for speed—according to Chase Goodbread of NFL.com, he was clocked at 4.33 in the 40yd dash last year.  But he’s really small at 166 pounds.  He suffered a Lisfranc sprain in Big 12 championship game last December 1 and tried to play through that injury before undergoing surgery.  He has drawn comparisons to DeSean Jackson.  Bottom line, Hollywood Brown could be in Detroit’s Week 1 starting lineup.  Fun fact: His nickname has nothing to do with the Hollywood in California—he’s originally from Hollywood, Florida.

2.01 Denver Red Rocks - QB Daniel Jones

Under Rick McCallum, the newly-renamed Red Rocks join this year’s draft party.  Three extremely close losses were a huge part of their 1-5 start, meaning McCallum is inheriting a team that’s better than its 2018 record.  This pick draws a question mark if only because the Red Rocks already have a solid starter in Carson Wentz and a good backup in the improving Mitchell Trubisky.  Or maybe Rick is just a big Giants fan.  Jones has experience in pro-style offenses and mobility to extend plays.  He got a first-round grade from the NFL’s College Advisory Committee.  Per John Schmeelk of giants.com: “Physically, quarterback Daniel Jones has everything you want in the position, from his height, to his athleticism and frame. … He was able to use touch and velocity, depending on what was needed on the play.”  9.2% of his passes were dropped last season, meaning his completion percentage of 60.5% could have been even higher.  He carried his team to an 8-5 record and a bowl game win.  But his decision-making has to improve.  He tends to play the safe option rather than take a shot downfield.

2.02 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - WR Hakeem Butler

This is the third of Indy's three picks in the top 18, and how well they fare with those picks will be critical in their rebuilding effort.  In my estimation, they did very well.  They got the QB depth (and possible upgrade) with Kyler Murray, a speedy WR in Mecole Hardman, and now a big and athletic WR in Butler.  Not many receivers of his size perform as well has Butler did (6'5”/227 with 10.75" hands, 4.48 while notching a respectable 36" vertical leap and a 128" broad jump).  The folks at footballguys.com love him, too—prior to the NFL Draft, four of their experts (Jason Wood, Dan Hindery, James Brimacombe and Jeff Haseley) had Butler in their top five rookies.  He lands in a very good job situation in Arizona, even though the Cards also drafted speedy Andy Isabella a day earlier.

2.03 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - WR Andy Isabella

Isabella put himself on the WR prospect map with 15 receptions for 219 yards and two TD’s in the 2018 season opener, in a performance that reminded me (statistically, at least) of another speedy WR who spurred a small school to topple a big one (TY Hilton vs. Louisville, 2011).  He was one of three finalists for the 2018 Biletnikoff Award, and at the Combine, he blazed a 4.31 40.  According to Rob Rang, while Isabella is short by NFL standards, he is well-built and tough, showing the courage to catch passes across the middle and the determination to pinball off would-be tacklers. Here in the TUFF Draft, two Cardinals rookie WRs go off the board with back-to-back picks.  Dallas is looking for someone to step up and be their #3 WR alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyler Boyd; Isabella, at the very least, will provide quality depth.

2.04 Arizona Outlaws - TE Noah Fant

Let’s see, you need a backup for your new starting QB (Baker Mayfield), and Drew Lock is still on the board, so what do you do?  Take a tight end.  Don’t get me wrong, Noah Fant is solid, but the Outlaws have Austin Hooper as their starter, and they could have theoretically drafted Josh Oliver in Round 3 to handcuff to Geoff Swaim and thus solidify the depth at TE that way.  Fant has tremendous speed (4.5 40) for a tight end. And Iowa’s been quite the tight end factory as of late (Dallas Clark, George Kittle, and TJ Hockenson as well as Fant.).  The Broncos drafted him in Round 1 after putting up with two injury-prone Big Ten alumni (Jeff Heuermann, Jake Butt) for the last two years.

2.05 Denver Red Rocks - QB Drew Lock

Let’s see, you could use depth at RB and WR.  JJ Arcega-Whiteside could be handcuffed to Alshon Jeffery and Nelson Agholor.  So what do you do?  Take yet another QB.  Lock has arguably the best arm among this year's QBs.  After a slow start last season, he came on strong in the final two months. His final five games at Missouri (including the bowl game vs. Oklahoma State): 67% completions, 8.56 ypa, 12 TD, 2 INT.

Commentary on this pick, after the draft ended:
Indy: Did someone tell Rick (DEN) this was a 2QB league?
Minnesota: I told Rick not to take both those guys. His response: "Hold my latte!"

2.06 Carolina Convicts - RB Alexander Mattison

Drafted by the Vikings at the end of Round 3 (the seventh RB selected in the Draft), Mattison offers bulk and strength, but not speed.  Dalvin Cook has played 15 games in two seasons. Carolina needed better RB depth, but I was surprised that they passed on both Justice Hill and Devin Singletary.

2.07 Carolina Convicts - PK Austin Siebert

A kicker handcuff in Round 2.  Somebody’s Jedi mind tricks must be working overtime--”This is not the wide receiver you’re looking for.”  Siebert, drafted by Cleveland in Round 5, will compete against Greg Joseph to be the Browns' kicker.

2.08 Minnesota Fighting Saints - WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside

When I began putting together a mock draft a few months ago, based on grades from certain sources, which positions each TUFF team had the greatest need for, etc. (and this was prior to the NFL Draft, of course), I had Arcega-Whiteside going late Round 1 / early Round 2.  So this is a decent value, and would become a solid one if the Eagles do decide to move on from Agholor.  Could Arcega-Whiteside, whom the Eagles drafted in Round 2, become the long-term replacement for Nelson Agholor (who becomes a free agent next year)?  Like many WR prospects, JJ won't play much right out of the box, now with Alshon Jeffery, DeSean Jackson and Agholor in front of him.

2.09 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - TE Irv Smith Jr.

Tampa Bay had passed on TJ Hockenson in Round 1; it’s very fortunate for them that this year’s draft is deep enough at TE that the Meat Goats may have found their new starting tight end here in Round 2.  Note: Kyle Rudolph (the Vikings' TE for the last seven years) becomes a free agent after 2019.  A recent breakdown in talks for a long-term extension for Rudolph could lead to a trade elsewhere.  Another possibility: Vikes could use more 2-TE sets, which would make disappointing WR Laquon Treadwell the odd man out, rather than Rudolph.  They did not pick up Treadwell’s fifth-year option, which is not much of a surprise given his career thus far (56/517/1 in three seasons)

2.10 Green Bay Ground Hogs - WR Diontae Johnson

2018 saw Green Bay slide from a 6-0 start to an early playoff exit.  Lowlights:

  • LeVeon Bell’s season-long holdout
  • Devonta Freeman (trade acquisition from Kansas City for Bell) was injured almost all year
  • A.J. Green's toe injury, which led to the trade for Josh Gordon
  • Gordon had a relapse just two weeks afterwards; and
  • Todd Gurley’s knee acting up at the worst possible time (he had his worst performance of the season in the Week 14 playoff loss to Detroit).

So this is the Ground Hogs' first pick of this year's Draft.  Diontae Johnson is a good pick considering the Steelers' recent track record with drafting wide receivers (the last bad one I can think of: Limas Sweed, 2008) and where he stood in various rookie rankings.  Zierlein compares him to another former Steelers WR, Emmanuel Sanders.

2.11 Tennessee Taz Devils - RB Justice Hill

The Taz Devils improve their RB depth, Part II.  The speedy but undersized Hill should, at the very least, be a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield for the Baltimore Ravens, and that’s nothing to sneeze at when you consider how pass-happy the NFL has become.  Plenty of RBs have scored a good deal of fantasy points in a role like that (examples: Darren Sproles, Reggie Bush, and back in 2015, Shane Vereen had a few really good games).  Lance Zierlein of NFL.com goes so far as to compare him to the Broncos’ Philip Lindsay.

2.12 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - RB Devin Singletary

Singletary, from Florida Atlantic University, had been compared to Maurice Jones-Drew, especially where size was concerned, but then came the Combine, when Singletary’s numbers didn’t measure up.  Singletary could only must a 4.66 40 and a 7.32 3-cone drill. For comparison, MJD had a 4.39 40 and a 7.08 3-cone.  His hands are rather small (8.5”), so ball security could be a concern.  He only fumbled once last year, which is way better than 2017 (when he fumbled four times), but we’ll see how those hands hold up against the best the NFL has to offer, rather than Conference USA.  He joins a backfield in Buffalo that is initially crowded (LeSean McCoy, Frank Gore, and TJ Yeldon), but McCoy is in the final year of his contract and is coming off the worst season of his career, and Gore's got to be thinking about hanging up the spikes.  The Bills could save more than $6M against the salary cap by moving him before Week 1.  There's a chance the Bills may just treat him with kid gloves and sit him while McCoy, Gore and Yeldon get the bulk of the work; still, this is a very good pick considering the potential job situation.

2.13 Minnesota Fighting Saints - TE Jace Sternberger

Sternberger headed to Texas A&M in 2018 as a four-star JuCo recruit. Question: Was he a one-season wonder? The Fighting Saints made this pick by submitting a draft list in advance.  Given that they already have OJ Howard and Evan Engram—a great duo they picked up in the 2017 Draft—and coupled with the fact that this year's draft is rich at tight end, I would not have put any tight ends on the list.  Even though they missed out on the chance to handcuff Alexander Mattison to Dalvin Cook, they still had the chance to handcuff Bryce Love to their 2018 first-round pick, Derrius Guice.

2.14 Houston Tethered Swimmers - RB Ryquell Armstead

Drafted by Jacksonville in Round 6.  The honeymoon with Leonard Fournette is over after two seasons; the question is, will there be a divorce?  This pick is critical for Houston in that they have no third-round pick and will not pick again until Round 4 (57th overall).  And Armstead finds himself the possible beneficiary of a critical situation in Jacksonville.  It’s evident that the Tethered Swimmers are looking for every scratch-off lottery ticket they can find as they rebuild their backfield.

2.15 Baltimore Brown Clowns - RB Bryce Love

Love tore an ACL in December 2018 (fourth quarter of regular season finale against Cal).  That and an earlier ankle injury present a cautionary tale to accomplished college players about the risks of staying in school for another year.  Reports about stiffness in his knee and concerns about whether he’ll regain his explosiveness led his draft stock to fall.  The Redskins drafted him in Round 4, which leads to doubt about Derrius Guice being ready to play anytime soon (he has had three surgeries on his knee and, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, is experiencing stiffness in it).  The Brown Clowns are another team looking to restore backfield depth this year.  They also aren’t above spending a couple bucks on a scratch-off lottery ticket.  Unlike a real scratch-off ticket, though, it'll probably take a year to scratch the gray stuff off this ticket as Love continues to recover from his injuries.

2.16 Detroit Vipers - WR Miles Boykin

Boykin ran a 4.42 40, jumped a 43.5" vertical, 140" broad jump and notched a 6.77 3-cone drill, all at a measured 6'4/220 with 9 7/8" hands.  He didn’t produce much in college, but at least some of that could be chalked up to QB play (e.g. Boykin got open, but the QB went to a check-down throw instead).  Boykin may be one of those players who fares better in the pros than he did in college.  NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compares him to Lions WR Kenny Golladay. After JJ Arcega-Whiteside and Diontae Johnson went off the board earlier in this round, I thought Boykin would follow soon afterwards.  The size/speed ratio and the handcuff factor were two of the three biggest reasons why I wanted to take him (reason #3, of course, being the poor WR depth I mentioned at 1.16).

3.01 Denver Red Rocks - WR Riley Ridley

Savvy route runner with hands that are both big and reliable.  Neither productive in college nor athletic at the Combine.  Long-term replacement for Taylor Gabriel with the Bears? I considered Ridley (if only as a handcuff for Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller) until deciding that he isn’t going to be much more than another Jason Avant—a serviceable possession receiver for years to come, which is great in the real world, but in fantasy, that’s a bye week/injury fill-in.

3.02 Houston Tethered Swimmers - QB Will Grier

Grier reportedly shot up at least one draft board after his Pro Day workout.  The Carolina Panthers' board may have been one of those.  The Indy Hoosier Daddy's had three picks in Round 3, but dealt two (this one and 3.13) to Houston for WR Tyreek Hill.  This deal makes sense for both sides given that Indy snatched WR Mecole Hardman from right under Houston’s nose in Round 1, Houston needed the third-rounders, and Indy had a surplus of draft capital.  Here, Houston handcuffs Grier to Cam Newton, who has been prone to injuries in recent years.

3.03 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - RB Rodney Anderson

If not for injuries, Anderson would have been considered one of the best running backs in this year’s class.  But due to injuries, he only played one full season (2017).  The other three, he missed due to a broken leg (2015), a fractured vertebra (2016) and a torn ACL (two games into 2018).  Now a Cincinnati Bengal, he will compete against another draftee (Trayveon Williams) for carries behind starter Joe Mixon.  Indy took him to add depth in their backfield.

3.04 Arizona Outlaws - RB Devine Ozigbo

Ozigbo, signed by the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent, led all Big Ten running backs in yards after contact last season.  The Outlaws had to take him to handcuff to their #1 running back, Alvin Kamara.

3.05 Cleveland Steamers - PK Matt Gay

The Steamers are looking for a backup for Steven Hauschka.  A year ago, that was Caleb Sturgis, but he was cut by the Chargers last November, and he hasn't had a job since.  Gay, drafted out of Utah by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Round 5, will compete against Cairo Santos for their placekicking job.

3.06 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - RB Trayveon Williams

Williams added weight and strength in 2018 to take on a heavier workload as Texas A&M's lead back.  After rushing for 1,765 yards and 18 TDs on 271 carries, he decided to go pro a year early.  He will battle Rodney Anderson for carries behind starter Joe Mixon.  Giovani Bernard is also there, but he's been the passing down/change-of-pace back for a few years, and is set to become a free agent after this season.  The Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS took Williams in an effort to improve their depth at running back.

3.07 Carolina Convicts - QB Ryan Finley

The Cincinnati Bengals drafted Finley in Round 3, and his draft profile--accurate passer, game manager--sounds like their current starter, Andy Dalton.  Quarterback depth had been an elephant in the Carolina Convicts' draft room, but they missed out on Kyler Murray and Dwayne Haskins in Round 1, then Daniel Jones and Drew Lock in Round 2.

3.08 Minnesota Fighting Saints - PK Chris Blewitt

Blewitt, signed as an undrafted free agent by the Chicago Bears as part of their ongoing search for a reliable placekicker, will compete against recent trade acquisition Eddy Pineiro for the Bears’ placekicking job.  The Fighting Saints set almost all their picks on auto-draft, and this auto-pick, in particular, is a curveball for these reasons:

  • They already have two solid kickers (Harrison Butker and Ryan Succop)
  • Neither is off until Week 11 (meaning the Fighting Saints have plenty of time to sign another kicker as off the free agent pile if Butker or Succop were to get hurt), and
  • They could have taken RB Dexter Williams (Aaron Jones handcuff)

3.09 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - WR Terry McLaurin

Mel Kiper Jr. is really big on McLaurin, having him going to the Colts with the 24th pick in his Mock Draft (version 4.0).  McLaurin ran a 4.35 40 and did very well at his Pro Day.  At the other end of the evaluation spectrum, NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein compares him to Justin Hardy (a free agent scrap heap journeyman in the TUFF world).  The Washington Redskins, who drafted him in Round 3, also did not pick up Josh Doctson’s fifth-year option.  For McLaurin, landing on the same team as his old college teammate (Haskins) is already working in his favor, if minicamp reports are any indication.  Note: Washington also drafted Kelvin Harmon in Round 6.  At the moment this pick went on the clock, I penciled in “QB Jarrett Stidham” because I thought the Meat Goats would be interested in making sure they had the Patriots’ signal-callers, now and forever.  Afterward, I said, “Paul (Granholm) is tempting the fates!”

3.10 Arizona Outlaws - WR Jalen Hurd

Hurd decided to transfer after a rough 2016 season at Tennessee, visiting Baylor and Ohio State and deciding on Baylor.  He moved to WR at Baylor, partly due to his height (6'4"), but mainly because he got dinged up too much at RB and realized that running backs were undervalued in the NFL and had shorter careers. He's raw as far as WRs go because he had played running back for so long, but even after sitting out 2017, he’s still just 23.  Note: San Francisco also drafted Deebo Samuel a round earlier, and it’s possible the Niners try to use Hurd as an H-back or even a tight end in an effort to pay him less than he would as a bona fide wideout.

3.11 Kansas City Slewage - RB Benny Snell Jr.

The Slewage finally join the Draft party, having traded their first and second round picks last year.  And they manage to do something productive with this pick—a handcuff for the other Steelers running backs (James Conner and Jaylen Samuels).

3.12 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - QB Jarrett Stidham

Stidham may be another player who works out better in the NFL than he did in college.  ESPN's draft maven Todd McShay said: “I never thought he was fully comfortable in the Auburn offense.  He tried.  He really did.  But I never thought he was a good fit.  He’s mature and he has NFL potential. … There’s no questioning his arm talent.” Dallas, it seemed, was also tempting the fates by passing on RB Tony Pollard, but adding QB depth with Stidham is a good move as well.  At least they didn’t completely screw Tampa Bay—they dropped Nick Mullens (potential Jimmy Garappolo handcuff) after making that pick.

3.13 Houston Tethered Swimmers - WR Gary Jennings Jr.

Jennings, taken in Round 4 by the Seattle Seahawks, is 6’1”/214 with 4.41 speed.  His job situation improved with Doug Baldwin’s retirement, albeit probably not to the same extent that DK Metcalf’s did.  He also seems to have a very good football IQ; see reason #2 in this article.  Houston had wanted to address WR depth issue for a while, especially after trading Tyreek Hill to Indy earlier in Round 3, and here, they have addressed it.

3.14 Tampa Bay Meat Goats - RB Dexter Williams

Drafted by Green Bay out of Notre Dame in Round 6.  Williams was the #1 RB for the Fighting Irish for only one season, but he made the most of it with 995 yards and 12 TDs on 158 carries. By drafting Williams, the Meat Goats added depth to their RB corps.  Beyond their current starters (David Johnson, Phillip Lindsay), they have D'Onta Foreman, then not much else.

3.15 Baltimore Brown Clowns - WR Kelvin Harmon

A less-than-stellar Combine (4.60 40, 32.5-inch vertical leap) may be why he slipped, but Round 6?! Based on how Harmon was projected to go higher in a lot of mock NFL Drafts, and even after the draft, he was still highly-regarded in some rookie rankings, so this is a good value.  Tim Ozga and Sander Kapler have to imagine that Harmon will come into the Washington Redskins' training camp with a big chip on his shoulder.

3.16 Tennessee Taz Devils - TE Josh Oliver

Quick, who’s the starting TE for Jacksonville?  If you said "Geoff Swaim," you cheated.  The Taz Devils had “A backup for Travis Kelce” on their shopping list, and they can finally check that off with Oliver.  Note: This pick was traded three times: First from Detroit to Pittsburgh over a year ago for QB Trevor Siemian, then shipped off to Green Bay last fall as part of the Josh Gordon trade, then shipped off yet again during the Draft when Green Bay and Tennessee flip-flopped picks in Round 2.

4.01 Denver Red Rocks - WR Darius Slayton

The competition to be Giants’ #3 WR is quite the crowd, including Corey Coleman, Cody Latimer, Russell Shepard, etc.  Slayton, drafted by the New York Giants in Round 5, had a good Combine with a 4.39 40 and explosive jumps, but he has had issues with drops and concentration, issues he shares in common with former first-rounder Coleman.  Given that Rick McCallum took QB Daniel Jones at 2.01, and has made this pick, it can be said that the Giants fandom is very strong with this one.

4.02 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - TE Kahale Warring

Drafted by Texans out of San Diego State in Round 3.  TE has been a committee/revolving door for the Texans for six years. It is not clear as to whether veteran TE Ryan Griffin punching out a hotel window in Nashville was in reaction to Warring's selection, but if neither has anything to do with the other, then the Texans would be very fortunate to have taken Warring in advance, as they released Griffin on May 17.  Meanwhile, in the TUFF world, Dallas’ search for a successor to the fading Jimmy Graham continues.

4.03 Indy Hoosier Daddy's - RB James Williams

Here's another scratch-off lottery ticket, given that the undrafted Williams has joined the post-Kareem Hunt Chiefs backfield.  Could be used as a satellite back, a la Shane Vereen. By selling this pick to Indy for 6 TUFFs, Cleveland passed on undrafted free agent Bruce Anderson, who would have helped them hedge their 2018 first-round bet on Ronald Jones II.

4.04 Arizona Outlaws - RB Travis Homer

Homer, drafted in Round 6 out of the University of Miami, reportedly would have to beat out J.D. McKissic to get a roster spot.  He showed an “extra gear” at rookie minicamp.

4.05 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - RB Tony Pollard

The Dallas Cowboys have been looking to improve their depth at running back for the last couple years, and it's a miracle Ezekiel Elliott has been so durable so far.  Pollard's job situation suffered a bit when Cowboys also drafted Mike Weber in Round 7, shot up after Weber hurt his knee in rookie minicamp, then went back down after it was found that the knee wasn’t hurt too badly and will not require surgery.  The Golden Tornadoes were fortunate that, after using their 3.12 and 4.02 picks on other players, Pollard was still available to handcuff to Elliott here at 4.05.

4.06 Pittsburgh BIG PAPAS - TE Dawson Knox

Knox was drafted by the Buffalo Bills in Round 3.  He's a converted QB who is still learning the position (particularly blocking). He didn’t get to produce much at Ole Miss, either, because his teammates included D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks), A.J. Brown (Titans) and DaMarkus Lodge (Bucs). But the few times he did catch the ball, it went a long way (18 yards per reception). He showed speed by running a 4.58 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. The Bills signed Tyler Kroft (Bengals) this past offseason to a 3-year contract, but what if he doesn’t recover from offseason foot surgery and Knox catches on sooner than expected? In that event, the Bills could get out of the Kroft contract without much in the way of salary cap headaches. TE depth was also on the BIG PAPAS' shopping list—they have TE Mike Gesicki, their second-round pick from last year, but he didn’t get used much last year (202 receiving yards), and they had to pick C.J. Uzomah off the scrap heap. I give credit to Pitt for going for Knox’s upside.

4.07 Carolina Convicts - WR Hunter Renfrow

The Raiders traded up in Round 5 to get Renfrow, and since head coach Jon Gruden plans on playing recent trade acquisition Antonio Brown all over the field, he is challenging Renfrow to be flexible as well. Renfrow caught the game-winning TD pass from DeShaun Watson in the National Championship Game two years ago. Note: Martavis Bryant reportedly drew Gruden’s ire for not being able to move all over the formation.

4.08 Tennessee Taz Devils - WR Ashton Dulin

Dulin, signed by the Indianapolis Colts as an undrafted free agent, offers a nice blend of size and speed, but faces a substantial jump in competition, going from Division II to the NFL.  Dulin attended Malone University, which no longer has a football program, and during his team’s final season, he accounted for 64% of the passing offense. Tennessee traded 4.10 and 5 TUFFs to Minnesota to move up two spots in this round.

4.09 Houston Tethered Swimmers - TE Caleb Wilson

The Mr. Irrelevant of this year’s NFL Draft.  At the moment, he’s behind two other tight ends in Arizona—Ricky Seals-Jones, whom Kliff Kingsbury remembers from his days at Texas A&M; and veteran Charles Clay.

4.10 Minnesota Fighting Saints - RB Elijah Holyfield

Holyfield’s 4.78 40 time was the nadir of a horrible Combine performance.  The son of former heavyweight boxing champ Evander “The Real Deal” Holyfield signed with the Carolina Panthers as an undrafted free agent and will battle veteran Cameron Artis-Payne and 5th-round rookie Jordan Scarlett for the right to back up Christian McCaffrey.

4.11 Kansas City Slewage - RB Bruce Anderson

After signing with the Tampa Bay Bucs as an undrafted free agent out of North Dakota State, Anderson shot up to #49 on Sigmund Bloom’s post-draft 100.  You can’t blame Bloom, given that there's not much between Anderson and the Bucs' top two backs, Peyton Barber (less than 4 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons) and disappointing Ronald Jones II.

4.12 Dallas Golden Tornadoes - WR Emmanuel Butler

The New Orleans Saints signed Butler as an undrafted free agent, but he was considered a deep sleeper for Day 3 of the NFL Draft.  Ric Serritella (NFLDraftScout.com) says: “He can play above the rim, showcasing the ability to come down with contested balls but also the body control to box out defenders in order to make the catch. Butler is a natural hands catcher with great concentration and plucks the ball away from his body. His size and hands are two of his best assets, to go along with exceptional body control. The team captain has been a student of the game, learning all the receiver positions, while lining up at the X, Y and Z spots for the Lumberjacks.”

4.13 Minnesota Fighting Saints - RB Karan Higdon

The Texans signed Higdon as an undrafted free agent from Michigan.  Note: they also signed another UDFA (Damarea Crockett), and they will compete for the #3 RB job in Houston behind Lamar Miller and D'Onta Foreman.

4.14 Houston Tethered Swimmers - RB Ty Johnson

The Lions drafted Johnson out of Maryland in Round 6.  The Houston Tethered Swimmers did well to handcuff one of their best RBs (Kerryon Johnson, their first-round pick a year ago) this late in the TUFF Draft.

4.15 Baltimore Brown Clowns - RB Qadree Ollison

At 6’2”, 225 lb., Ollison can be the short yardage/goal line power back the Falcons have wanted for for the last few years to complement Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith.

4.16 Detroit Vipers - RB Jordan Scarlett

Scarlett has the athleticism coaches crave, but what’s going on inside his head? Marijuana possession (2015), and he was involved in same credit card fraud scheme as WR Antonio Callaway and a few other Gators (suspended for 2017).  Similar in size and creativity to DeAngelo Williams, but Lance Zierlein contends that Scarlett has “dreadful” hands.  Concerns about character and maturity are why Scarlett fell to Round 5—and arguably could have fallen farther—but Panthers GM Marty Hurney is willing to bet that Scarlett has matured. Anyway, anytime you can get a possible handcuff for your best RB at the very end of the TUFF Draft, you just can’t pass that up.